Analysis

Cost drivers

What is underneath a road rate: pump diesel by country back to 2005, the fuel component stripped out of the European contract index, and the country cost envelopes with the mechanism that actually passes each one through in a contract.

Scopes the diesel chart

Diesel pump price by country — with tax

Observed · EUR per litre · to Jul 26
0.681.101.531.952.37EUR/lJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebJul2005 to 2026Mar 2026 spike

Monthly means of the weekly pump survey, 2005 to date. Source: European Commission DG ENER, EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, weekly. Six categorical hues is a hard cap, so at most six countries draw at once; colour stays bound to the country, and hiding one never repaints the rest. The ex-tax basis is the one that matters for a floater: excise and VAT do not move with crude.

Latest pump price

As of Jul 26
CountryWith tax (EUR/l)Ex tax (EUR/l)Tax wedge
EU average1.8821.0560.827
Germany2.0721.1090.963
France2.0111.0690.943
Poland1.6440.9150.729
Netherlands2.2311.2860.945
Belgium2.0111.0610.949
Spain1.6071.1000.507
Italy2.0060.9711.035

Gross versus net — European road contract index against the same index without fuel

Observed · index · road only
  • Europe contractobserved
  • Europe ex-fuelobserved
103.9112.6121.3129.9138.6indexMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJul2022 to 2026Mar 2026

Both series are index levels on a common base, drawn on one axis. The gap between them is the fuel component of the published road contract index.

The March to April 2026 reading, written out

  • Headline moved from 131.05 to 134.97, +3.92 points.
  • Ex-fuel moved from 121.98 to 122.61, +0.63 points.
  • A carrier quoting the headline to justify a base rate increase in that month is quoting a fuel number. The fuel part is already reimbursed by any working floater, so it must not be paid twice in the base rate.

Driver register

Country cost envelopes · as of 2026-07-01
ComponentGermany (EUR/km)Poland (EUR/km)Pass-through mechanism
Driver salary and charges0.48 – 0.550.28 – 0.34Annual review trigger: reopened when the collective wage settlement exceeds the agreed threshold, otherwise fixed for the term.
Fuel net of AdBlue0.41 – 0.460.38 – 0.43Diesel floater, reviewed monthly against a published pump index; the only component most contracts adjust in-year.
Insurance0.07 – 0.100.05 – 0.07Fixed for the contract term; re-based only at renewal.
Maintenance and tyres0.12 – 0.150.10 – 0.13Fixed for the contract term; re-based only at renewal.
Overhead admin IT compliance0.12 – 0.160.08 – 0.11Fixed for the contract term; carrier risk.
Tolls route-weighted0.20 – 0.280.10 – 0.16Maut and equivalents passed through as toll rate times contracted distance, restated when the tariff changes.
TOTAL all-in cost floor1.60 – 1.961.17 – 1.48Sum of the components above at the same as-of date.
Vehicle lease or depreciation0.20 – 0.260.18 – 0.24Fixed for the contract term; re-based only at renewal.
Walk-away threshold1.55 – 1.601.10 – 1.20Commercial floor below which the carrier declines the lane.

ETS2 arrives in January 2027 at the pump, roughly +0.13 EUR per litre at 50 EUR per tonne. That is a forward assumption about a scheme, not an observed price, and it is not added to any diesel line on this page. The escalation designer carries it as an explicit toggle.