Analysis

Triangulation

One lane, one EUR per km axis, and every independent reading that exists for it: the observed lane benchmark, the carrier cost floor for the applicable country base, the corridor contract index direction and the official-statistics cross-check. Where they agree the range is corroborated; where they disagree the disagreement is named rather than averaged away.

Observed
Scopes everything below
road BerlinPrague
33 captured road lanes. No free-text lane entry: a lane is in the capture or it is not scored.

Berlin → Prague · 359 km

Observed benchmark · modelled cost readings
1.39Observed lane benchmark1.391.39DE all-in cost floor1.601.96DE walk-away threshold1.551.60

One axis, EUR per km. The benchmark is observed and filled; the cost readings are modelled and drawn as open rings, so nothing on this axis can be mistaken for a captured price. The two index readings below contribute direction only and are never converted into a level on this axis.

Corridor index direction

Observed · direction only

Europe aggregate is +5.7% over twelve months and +0.4% over three, read at July 2026.

A percentage move applied to a displayed level, never a standalone predicted price. The index is not converted into EUR per km anywhere on this page.

No cross-border contract series is published for DE to CZ. The European aggregate is shown instead, which is a broader market than this lane. Six distinct European aggregates exist, not eight: the published middle-distance and long-distance aggregates duplicate domestic and cross-border.

Official statistics cross-check

Eurostat H49 · quarterly

Producer prices for land transport in Germany are +3.4% year on year, reading 2026-01 against 2025-01.

Scope is NACE H49 land transport, which is broader than road freight alone: it carries rail and pipeline too. It is an independent check on direction, not a substitute for the corridor index.

Reading the three together

Observed and modelled, stated separately
  • The direction is corroborated. The corridor contract index (+5.7%) and the official producer price series (+3.4%) point the same way, from two independent publishers on different methodologies. A move argued in that direction has two sources behind it, and the 2.3 point difference between them is the width of the argument, not a contradiction.
  • The floor sits above the lane benchmark. The DE all-in cost floor starts at 1.60 EUR/km, which is 15.3% above the lane benchmark of 1.39. Either this lane runs on a lower cost base than the DE envelope assumes, or it is backhaul-priced. The conflict is shown rather than hidden: one of the two inputs is wrong for this lane and it is worth knowing which before the tender.
  • Modelled levels are never shown as prices anywhere in this product. A modelled cost table scored against observed transactions on twelve lanes missed by −34 to +74 percent — see sources.

Observed capture 26 July 2026 · cost envelope as of 1 July 2026.